Credibility of opinion polls at stake as most tipped Ponsapat
The Nation
Bangkok: -- The results of exit polls conducted by regular pollsters on yesterday's governor election yesterday were proving to be inaccurate in the early stages of vote counting as incumbent Sukhumbhand Paribatra was still ahead of his closest rival, Pheu Thai's Pongsapat Poncharoen, at press time.
In their previous surveys of Bangkok constituents, the five polls often projected Pongsapat ahead of Democrat Sukhumbhand. The survey results, criticised for supporting rival parties, were being questioned by the media about neutrality and the academic independence of the pollsters, all of whom are universities.
The five pollsters are Abac University's Abac Poll, Suan Dusit Rajabhat Institute's Dusit Poll, Bansomdejchaopraya Rajabhat's Bansomdej Poll, Bangkok University's Bangkok Poll, and the National Institute of Development Administration's Nida Poll. Members of the media, especially television broadcasters, have also conducted their own surveys, either independently or jointly with other educational institutes.
Even on election day yesterday, Abac Poll released "pre-election" results conducted on 5,713 people, 45.9 per cent of whom said they would vote for Pongsapat while 34.1 per cent said they preferred Sukhumbhand.
A few days before election day, Rajabhat Suan Dusit, despite regularly conducting surveys in the countdown to the election, surprisingly announced it would not do an exit poll, citing current political conflicts and possible violation of electoral laws.
During real-time reports before and at press time yesterday, exit polls showed Pongsapat beating the Democrat Party candidate, MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra, by between 1.48 per cent and 7.39 per cent.
The poll carried out jointly by the Television Pool of Thailand and The Nation and Bansomdejchaopraya Rajabhat universities showed that 40.02 per cent of the voters surveyed said they had voted for Pongsapat, compared to 38.54 per cent for Sukhumbhand. Bangkok University's exit poll showed Pongsapat winning 44.14 per cent of votes, compared to Sukhumbhand's 41.07 per cent.
The exit poll by Channel 7 showed the widest margin, with 46.23 per cent of votes going to Pongsapat and 38.84 per cent to Sukhumbhand. Two weeks earlier, all five polls put Pongsapat ahead of Sukhumbhand in their frequent surveys, and placed independent runners like Sereepisuth Temeeyaves, Kosit Suwinijit, and Suharit Siamwalla behind them.
There was reportedly an internal opinion survey conducted by the police's Special Branch Division, which favoured Pongsapat over Sukhumbhand, but a police spokesman and Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung denied such a survey took place.

-- The Nation 2013-03-04